UK households are being encouraged to keep enough food, water and other essentials at home to cope with several days of disruption, as forecasters warn that an unusually powerful El Niño could increase the chances of a wet and stormy start to the coming winter.
The developing 2026 El Niño could be the largest in living memory, according to the Met Office, which has described the strength of the signal in its forecasts as unprecedented. Its current outlook suggests that El Niño could increase the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, during autumn and early winter.
Environment Secretary Angela Eagle has also urged people to become more resilient to emergencies by keeping some basic supplies at home. Speaking on 3 September, she said households would be better placed to cope if they had enough food to keep themselves going before assistance could reach them.
None of this means that a disastrous winter is certain. Long-range forecasts deal in probabilities, not guarantees. But with several months before the worst winter weather would normally arrive, there is a good argument for making a few sensible preparations now rather than waiting for a storm warning.
Why is this El Niño attracting so much attention?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Although it takes place thousands of miles from Britain, it can alter weather patterns around the world.
El Niño itself is not unusual. What is unusual in 2026 is its potential strength.
On 21 August, the Met Office said this year’s event was developing into what could be the largest El Niño in living memory and probably the largest since the 19th century.
Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s Head of Long Range Forecasting, described the event as unprecedented and said he had never seen an El Niño signal as intense in the organisation’s forecasts.
Typical El Niño events produce sea-surface temperature increases of around 1–2°C in the relevant part of the Pacific, while the current forecasts show values exceeding 3°C in the coming months.
There is still uncertainty around exactly how strong it will eventually become. But the scale of the forecasts is significant enough for meteorologists and governments to be paying close attention.
What could El Niño mean for the UK this winter?
There is no simple rule that says a strong El Niño automatically produces severe storms in Britain.
UK weather is influenced by many interacting factors, and forecasts several months ahead cannot tell us whether a particular town will experience flooding, how many named storms we will see or whether Christmas will be wet, windy, snowy or surprisingly calm.
What forecasters can identify is a change in the probability of certain types of weather.
The Met Office currently expects the influence of El Niño to increase the chances of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, during autumn and early winter.
That makes disruption from familiar British winter hazards worth preparing for, including:
- prolonged heavy rain and local flooding
- strong winds and fallen trees
- power cuts
- transport disruption
- temporary water-supply problems
- damage to homes and property
- interruptions to mobile or internet services
- difficulty reaching shops or collecting essential supplies
For most households, these are far more useful things to think about than the technical details of El Niño.
You don’t need to prepare for an abstract climate phenomenon. You need to prepare for the practical consequences if bad weather temporarily disrupts normal life.
The Government wants households to be more prepared
The advice to keep emergency supplies at home isn’t completely new.
The Government’s official Prepare campaign already recommends considering what your household would need during an emergency lasting a few days, such as a power cut, water outage or situation where people are advised to remain at home.
The Government has also announced plans for a wider public-awareness campaign intended to help people prepare for emergencies including extreme weather and other major disruptions.
The developing El Niño has made that advice particularly relevant.
Speaking on 3 September, Angela Eagle linked the need for greater household resilience with the possibility of more extreme weather, arguing that people with some food stored at home would be in a much better position during an emergency than those who had nothing available.
It is essentially the same principle preppers have advocated for years: don’t assume every essential service will always be immediately available.
A relatively small amount of preparation can make an inconvenient few days considerably easier.
What should you keep at home for a winter emergency?
You don’t need a bunker or a year’s supply of freeze-dried food to become considerably more resilient.
A sensible starting point is being capable of getting through several days at home without relying on the shops, mains electricity or, potentially, the water supply.
The Government’s own emergency preparedness guidance suggests keeping supplies including a battery or wind-up torch, portable power bank, battery or wind-up radio, spare batteries, first aid supplies, bottled water and non-perishable food.
For a typical household, I’d concentrate on the following.
Water
Water should be near the top of the list.
The Government’s Prepare guidance cites a minimum of 2.5–3 litres of drinking water per person per day for survival, while around 10 litres per person per day provides considerably more flexibility for drinking, basic cooking and hygiene.
Pets, babies and some medical requirements will increase the amount needed.
You don’t necessarily need to buy it all at once. Building a modest emergency water supply gradually is considerably better than having none.
See our article on Water Storage for Emergencies for more information.
Food that doesn’t depend on electricity
Keep several days of food that can be eaten without cooking, or prepared with minimal resources.
Tinned meat and fish, beans, fruit, cereals, crackers, long-life milk, spreads and other shelf-stable foods can all work well.
A useful test is simple:
If the electricity went off this evening and stayed off for two days, could you still make reasonable meals from what is already in the house?
Remember the manual tin opener.
See our article on Long-Term Food Storage for more about what food to store.
Torches and lighting
Winter power cuts become much more inconvenient once darkness arrives in the late afternoon.
Keep at least one reliable torch somewhere you can find it easily in the dark, together with spare batteries where appropriate.
The Government specifically recommends battery or wind-up torches rather than candles because of the fire risk.
Rechargeable lanterns can also make a prolonged outage considerably more comfortable.
Power banks and backup electricity
A charged power bank can keep a mobile phone working through a relatively short outage, allowing you to receive weather warnings, communicate with family and check local information.
Larger portable power stations can provide considerably more capacity for households wanting to run lights, communications equipment and some small electrical devices.
Whatever you use, charge it before severe weather arrives. A completely flat backup battery isn’t much of a backup.
For help deciding which power bank to buy, see our article on the Best Power Banks for Preppers.
A battery or wind-up radio
Mobile networks and broadband normally work perfectly well during everyday bad weather, but relying exclusively on an internet connection leaves you with a single point of failure.
The Government recommends keeping a battery or wind-up radio available so you can receive updates during a power cut.
It’s a cheap piece of redundancy that can become very useful when everything else stops working.
Essential medication and first aid supplies
If anyone in the household relies on prescription medication, don’t allow supplies to run unnecessarily low.
The Government recommends having enough essential medication to last for several days and keeping backup batteries charged for medical equipment where applicable.
A properly stocked household first aid kit is also worth having before winter begins, particularly when bad weather could make travelling to a pharmacy or medical facility more difficult.
Read our article about the fBest Prepper First Aid Kits UK: What to Buy and What to Add for information about which one to buy.
Warmth
Think about how you would keep warm if your normal heating stopped working during a power cut.
Warm layers, blankets, sleeping bags and suitable clothing require no electricity and should form the first line of defence.
Never use barbecues, camping stoves or other outdoor cooking equipment inside the house as an improvised source of heat. Carbon monoxide can kill.
A basic household emergency plan
Preparedness isn’t only about buying things.
Make sure everyone in the household knows where your emergency equipment is kept, how to switch off utilities if necessary and how you would contact each other if mobile networks were disrupted.
The Government’s guidance recommends keeping important phone numbers written down, deciding where household members would meet if they couldn’t return home, and exchanging contact details with neighbours.
A simple family emergency plan takes very little time to create and can be useful in far more situations than a winter storm.
Don’t forget your car
Storms don’t necessarily arrive while everyone is safely at home.
Heavy rain, snow, fallen trees and flooding can cause major delays on Britain’s road network. If you regularly drive long distances, putting a few emergency items in the boot before winter is worthwhile.
Government guidance suggests carrying items such as:
- a torch
- phone charger or power bank
- warm clothes and blankets
- high-visibility clothing
- food and drink
- a first aid kit
- jump leads
It also advises drivers never to attempt to drive through floodwater, which may be deeper or faster-flowing than it appears.
Should you start stockpiling?
Probably not, at least not in the panic-buying sense of the word.
There is no reason to rush out and fill a trolley with bottled water and baked beans because you’ve read that El Niño is coming.
There is a good reason to look around your home and ask how well you could cope if a winter storm knocked the electricity out for 24 or 48 hours, left local roads flooded or temporarily interrupted the water supply.
If the answer is “not very well”, September is an excellent time to do something about it.
Buy a few extra long-life foods during your normal shopping. Check the batteries in your torches. Charge your power banks. Make sure your emergency radio works. Review your medicines. Clear gutters and drains. Check fences, sheds and anything else outside that strong winds could damage or pick up.
Preparedness works best when it is gradual, affordable and done before an emergency is imminent.
Keep the forecast in perspective
The extraordinary strength of the developing El Niño makes the outlook worth watching, but it is important not to turn a long-range climate signal into a precise weather prediction.
The Met Office has said El Niño is expected to increase the chances of wetter and stormier conditions in the UK during autumn and early winter. It has not said that Britain is guaranteed to experience catastrophic storms, widespread flooding or prolonged blackouts.
As we get closer to winter, forecasts will become clearer and individual periods of severe weather will be covered by normal Met Office warnings.
The sensible response today isn’t panic.
It’s preparation.
A good time to check your household preparedness
One of the advantages of preparing for storms is that almost everything you do also makes you more resilient to other emergencies.
Stored water is useful during a burst main. A power bank helps during any electricity outage. Emergency food works when you can’t reach the shops. A radio provides another way of receiving information. A family emergency plan can help during floods, fires, evacuations and many other disruptions.
Perhaps this winter will be unusually stormy. Perhaps El Niño’s impact on the UK will turn out to be less dramatic than some of the current headlines suggest.
Either way, having enough essential supplies to manage independently for a few days is a sensible precaution.
And with the Government now encouraging households to become more prepared, this is a particularly good time to check whether you’re actually ready.
